Historic Elections in Nigeria: Signpost of deepened struggles ahead*

General Muhammadu Buhari, an ex-military head of state won the popular vote last week, defeating the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. This would be the first time an incumbent government’s party would be so defeated. The first two republics were overthrown by the military in the wake of manipulated general elections that threw up severe political crises.

General Buhari’s All Progressives Congress claimed the high ground of “change”. The campaign of “the people’s General” as Buhari was re-christened revolved around: ending corruption; defeating insurgency in the northeast and; eradicating unemployment. Buhari’s reputation as an austere and truth-speaking (“Maigaskiya) “strongman” was played up as evidence he would deliver on APC’s campaign promises.

Although Buhari won with just under 3million votes of the 28 odd million votes cast, support for his bid was very palpable from diverse quarters, including some socialists described “Buharism” as a spectre of socialism! When the election which was earlier scheduled to hold on February 14 was postponed by the electoral commission when arm twisted by the military top brass, many concluded that it was an attempt by the Peoples Democratic Party government to shore up support for the president’s re-election bid.

The major excuse given at the time was that there was a major offensive to crush Boko Haram within that period and thus security for elections in the north east in particular and across the country in general could not be guaranteed by the state, if elections held on February 14. Another reason was that the Permanent Voters Card distribution (PVC) was just over 50% as at February 7 and this would result in the disenfranchisement of a significant proportion of the electorate.

Major successes were indeed recorded in the 6-week period by the Federal Government. Most of the territories seized by Boko Haram since August last year were recovered. Collection of PVCs also increased to 80%. The PDP’s campaign gathered steam, throwing everything it could at Buhari, including his past as a merciless dictator. It appeared the PDP had gained ground. But this was not enough for it to win.

There is more than a tinge of truth in PDP’s references to Buhari’s past rule. While the military junta he led in 1983-85 pursued a radically patriotic agenda in locking up corrupt politicians and instituting a “War Against Indiscipline”, this agenda also included the repression of civic organisations of all types and indiscriminate detentions without trial. When it was overthrown in a palace coup, Nigerians danced with joy on the streets. General Buhari rationalised these as regrettable side dishes of military dictatorship assuring the world that he would be much more circumspect as a civilian leader.

Buhari contested three earlier presidential elections on the platform of two different parties. His victory this time around rests on four major bases.

First, Nigeria is in an economic crisis, like never before since the reinstatement of civil rule in 1999. The collapse of oil prices in the global market is taking a great; the government is broke and has commenced implementation of austerity. Several federal ministries and parastatals as well as a third of the 36 states owe public sector workers backlog of wages, up to five months in some cases.

Second, the Federal Government’s bungling in its war against Boko Haram has made it extremely unpopular, across the country. Its recapturing of territories over the last few weeks are considered as being too little too late. While General Buhari had always won a majority of votes in the northeastern region, the resounding defeat PDP suffered in the “liberated areas” of that region on March 28, is particularly instructive in this regard.

 Third, APC represents a new dimension of opposition politics; a pan-Nigerian opposition platform. Different sections of the ruling class tend to have “catchment areas” on the basis of ethno-regional identity. PDP was arguably the first real pan-Nigerian party. APC was formed two years ago as a merger of four different parties with influence in different geo-political zones. Several disgruntled members of PDP are also in its leadership. Added up, this guaranteed a national spread of influence, party machinery and resources.

Fourth, the use of the PVCs drastically limited the room for electoral fraud, which incumbent parties have added advantage in perpetuating. It was thus not surprising that the PDP did all it could to stop the use of PVCs for the election, but to no avail.

The elections have now come and gone. But governorship and state law-makers elections (which were also postponed for 6 weeks) are scheduled for April 11. Post-electoral violence was averted after March 28 because President Jonathan conceded before the final results were announced. This was not an altruistic action. He was prevailed upon by the governments of the United States, United Kingdom, South Africa and Kofi Annan, the former UN boss, reflecting the interest of the bosses globally for stability, law and order in Nigeria.

It is not certain that such reasonableness will be secured in the dispersed sites of interests that April 11 elections are. PDP governors have made it clear they will do everything possible to maintain control of the states where they presently rule. Buoyed by its presidential victory, APC will also go all out to win.

But the greater test of the bosses’ rule will come after May 29 when General Buhari would be sworn in. Fulfilling even the least of his campaign promises would be a Herculean task with the level of the state’s insolvency. But the reawakened masses that have come to learn that power could truly lie in their hands, even through the limited context of the right of franchise would most likely not be ready to wait for four years before confronting the General they have brought to power.     

Now, more than ever, revolutionary socialists have to patiently explain the limitations of the “change” that APC represents, building influence and numbers to be able to provide leadership when the barricades of struggles beaconing in the near future are upon us.

Find abridged version as published in the Socialist Worker (UK): http://socialistworker.co.uk/art/40286/Nigeria%E2%80%99s+election+points+to+deeper+struggles+ahead